Decline of Iran's Soft Power in Afghanistan

Stanford: CREEES seminar: "Iran and the Hazaras of Afghanistan: The Decline of Tehran's Soft Power"

Short synopsis of my talk’s proposed content:

Iran’s influence in Afghanistan is unique in that it has not historically derived from support for militant groups, but instead from “soft power” especially through Afghanistan’s Shiite Hazaras people.  The Hazaras share language, religion and culture with Iran, and constitute approximately 10-15 percent of the Afghan population. Over the last four years, Iran has accelerated its soft power efforts through Hazaras by investing in construction projects, increasing trade and promoting its ideology. Iran has also engaged in cultural exchange programs and provided humanitarian aid and scholarships.  Books, DVDs and pamphlets promoting anti-Zionist and anti-American sentiments have been distributed to Hazara communities.

Despite investing significant resources in these efforts, Iran has not achieved the influence in Afghanistan it hoped for. The Hazara minority group, which has faced long-term persecution in Afghanistan, has proven more concerned with the fear that the Taliban regime will return than it is with Iranian interests. Hazaras therefore tend to support the U.S. troop presence rather than Iran. Other factors like the rise of Hazara nationalism and bitterness about the treatment of Hazara refugees in Iran have also served to mitigate Iran’s traditional soft power efforts.  

Given the waning influence of Iranian soft power in the Hazara ethnic minority, we are now beginning to see evidence of an Iranian trend towards the “hard power.”  “Hard power” activities range from arming, financing and training the Taliban to allowing the Taliban to open an office in Iran.  Iran has also been instrumental in training individuals for roadside bombing attacks, and giving money to Afghan politicians to exert its anti-U.S. influence in Afghanistan. 

When:

Friday, February 15, 2013. 12:00 PM.
Approximate duration of 1.50 hour(s).

Where:

CISAC Conference Room, Encina Hall Central (2nd floor)

Sponsor:

CREEES Center for Russian, East European & Eurasian Studies at Stanford

Individuals Matter

Individual leadership matters, and leaders make a difference in international relations. There is some empirical evidence that individuals have played an important role in international relations. In IR the form of government is not as important as the leadership. Sometimes, the public domain and internal politics personify in leadership. In Farsi, there is a proverb that goes "what leaks out of the ewer is what is inside it"[از کوزه همان تراود که دراوست],or in English as goes "tree is known by its fruit." Lets consider Ahmadinejad of Iran's leadership, for example. During his two term presidency, he had been one of the most controversial figures in international sphere.

If Ahmadinejad had not called Israel a “tumor” and had not reiterated the words of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, by saying that Israel should be wiped off the map, today, Iran might have a different status in international relations. Furthermore, if Ahmadinejad had not used inflammatory rhetoric against Israel, and he has not continued to do so, probably Israel and the United State might not pay so much attention to Iran’s uranium enrichment.

Iran began developing its nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure in 1990. During Muhammad Khatami’s presidency Iran made some progress in its enrichment program. Khatami who was known for his openness to dialogue proposed discussion between civilizations. He was the only president after Rafsanjani who openly called for dialogue between the US and Iran.

The impact of individuals in international relations especially in Middle Eastern politics has always been felt through their leadership and management. Had Saddam and Khomeini not been born, the Middle East today could be different? I guess the answer is not a simple "no," it is rather complicated. Nevertheless, if some of these leaders were not born, the world would be much different than as of today.

To conclude, individuals matter, a good and skillful leader can play an important role for his/her country in international relations. The Middle Eastern countries in international relations are always in the spotlight because they are in a different circumstance. Almost 66% of global oil reserves are in the hands of Middle Eastern regimes: Saudi Arabia (25%), Iraq (11%), Iran (8%), UAE (9%), Kuwait (9%), and Libya (2%). Any instability in the Middle East could impact the world economy. 

Ta’arof as a Denial in Iranian Social Life

Christopher de Bellaigue who is the author of the new book Patriot of Persia: Muhammad Mossadegh and a Tragic Anglo-American Coup has published an article on the Atlantic, explaining the complexity of ta’arof in Iran. Ta’arof is a borrowed word from Arabic which is simply used for introductions and meeting people.

In Farsi ta’arof is a form of polite behavior shown among Farsi speakers in Iran. It is a delightful and respectful interaction but at the same time it is a form denial and dishonesty. As Bellaigue explains ta’arof is

“symptomatic of a broader Iranian tendency to clothe every­thing in ambiguity—and to spend an inordinate amount of time doing so.”

Bellaigue, whose wife is Iranian, applied for Iranian citizenship eight years ago. Each time he went to the Department of Alien Affairs, he was welcomed warmly and offered tea and then asked to visit again. He says since ta’arof has an open ending, 8 years later, he is still waiting for his citizenship.

Ta’arof as much as it has a positive meaning in social interaction it has also some negative meanings. Basically, ta’arof can be used in a variety of ways, between a wife and a husband, father and son, brother with sisters and so on. It is so rooted in Iranian social life that it is hard to be removed. We Afghans always joke about Iranian ta’arof that how they waste time, instead of displaying their friendship and kindness they exaggerate to a point that ultimately is annoying.

Last week, after I read the Bellaigue’s piece on Iranian ta’arof I forwarded it to one of my friends at school. Since last year, she has tirelessly been working on her Farsi to travel to Iran with her Iranian friend but just recently her Iranian friends uninvited her. She wrote me back and said:

This article is a perfect explanation of how my friends first invited me to go to Iran next summer and then uninvited me. I thought my friends had been in this country enough decades to avoid this kind of thing but I was wrong. I just experienced ta’rof big time.

As Bellaigue says in his article that ta’arof is tricky and confusing. I am not in a position to judge whether Iranian should do their ta’arof outside Iran or not but it is certainly annoying and obnoxious to non-Iranians. Of course, most of Iranians are proud of ta’arof in their social interactions while there are many Iranians who abhor ta’arof. But ta’arof is still part of Iranian culture and identity. That’s how Iranian culture is distinct from cultures of other Farsi spoken countries like Afghanistan and Tajikistan. In these two countries where historically Farsi has deeper roots than Iran, ta’arof has no place in their cultures.

The purpose of writing this short piece is not to criticize Iranians because of their confusing traditional social behavior but to raise this question: to what extent do we know others and how can we avoid being ta’arofed by Iranian friends? Also should we expect them to be aware of our cultures and assimilate into an alien culture or should we learn their cultures accept them as they are?
The answers to these questions depend on individuals, time and location.

Smothered in smog that's created by the CIA

In 2005, I made a short visit to Tehran to visit a few friends. Tehran is the smoggiest of all capitals and when its severe air pollution that’s caused by petrol produced locally hits the city, it becomes unbearable. Schools were closed, the government expressed its concern and only a small number of cars were permitted to move in the city.

I spent 10 days in Tehran, in a city that was shrouded in darkness and poisonous air - it was really suffocating. One day I was in a taxi with other three other passengers going from downtown to uptown or “Tajrish.” On our way, everyone was complaining about the air pollution and why the government does not do anything.

A former University teacher who is retired and now driving a taxi blamed the United States and especially the CIA that has control over Tehran’s air. He said, the U.S. has this ability to put some tools in the sky to divert the direction of wind to somewhere else and stop letting people suffocate from a poisonous air in Tehran.

I heard this from many people in Tehran and surprisingly people did not blame the government or the flow of cheap oil to the capital.

Considering this as an example that how people in Iran, Afghanistan, and many Middle Eastern countries look to the U.S., it complicates the situation to understand others’ impressions of the U.S. and how they look at the U.S. Unfortunately they are full of rumors sometimes. I had a few Iranian classmates who believed that the UFO is a CIA agent that travels at the speed of light.

Before coming to the U.S., I realized that there is a huge gap of misunderstanding between people in the Middle East and the West in general. The reasons could be the lack of information, cultural clash and most importantly the public’s perception of U.S. influence in the Middle East that make people have hostile and negative attitudes.

Seven years ago, the internet was not that popular and many people did not have access to the internet; only a few hundred thousands had access. Today, Iran has 36,500,000 internet users, the highest number in the entire Middle East. Iran has been ranked the third country in the world for the blogsphere. In a country where media is strictly controlled by the government, these blogs are the potential sources of the news, not only for the people to understand the outside world but also educate others about their politics, culture and society.

Today, when I look at Iran and Afghanistan, I have a better understanding of these two countries. When you are inside the country the information flows and there is no one to critically look at the events but it’s obviously easy to judge something when you are not involved and from a little distance you can clearly understand what is happening.

Funeral Crackdown in Iran

What the heck is going on in Iran? The Iranian regime put more constraints on its people and now they even have a problem burying their dead. On Thursday, more than 7 people were arrested while attending a funeral for the father of one of the reformist leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi.

The Green Movement website says that government security forces surrounded Mousavi’s home in Tehran as people were gathered for a funeral. It says that there was a confrontation between mourners and policemen in plain clothes who seized the coffin, forcefully placed it in a ambulance, and took it to a burial ceremony.

Furthermore it says, while a confrontation erupted between mourners and police forces, the police forces in plain clothes attacked mourners, beaten them up and arrested more than seven funeral attendants.

It has been since February 14 that opposition’s leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi along with their wives have been put under house arrest, after they called for a rally in support of Egyptian uprising.

Iran Opposition Preparing For More Protests

According to a recent news report, the Iranian government jailed two opposition leaders alongside their wives on Sunday, February 27. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi had been under house arrest since the February 14th demonstration. The protest on February 14th, called 25Bahman, was organized by Green movement in sympathy for Egyptian uprising but was cracked down by the government.

As Iranian government put more pressure on oppositions, there is some news about the outbreak of a widespread protest tomorrow across Iran.

Social networking sites which belong to the Green movement say that tomorrow will be an important day for Iran - an important day on which people would have a peaceful demonstration against the government that jailed their leaders. Tomorrow’s demonstration coincides with Mousavi’s birthday. The Green movement website has already announced that the tomorrow’s demonstration will follow the same pattern as February 14th and will likely continue until their leaders are released from jail.

According to the BBC Persian website, which quoted from the Green movement website, as nightly protest began, the anti-government slogans have already been heard from Tehran and many other provinces. The Green movement has asked its supporters to peacefully march through streets and reach the squares. It also emphasized that protesters should remain in public places and squares until their leaders Mousavi and Karroubi are released.

China and Iran Censor News from Egypt

As Egypt uprising enters its seven day and makes its way to the entire Middle East, some countries already shocked and have fears that their citizens might be provoked against their governments. Chinese government has already started blocking micro-blogs that talk about Egyptian unrest.

At the same time, Iranian government enforced censorship of the news from Egypt on its news channels. Not only news channels forced to censor news from Egypt, the Iranian regime also blocked he BBC and social networks Facebook and Twitter.

For the last days, hundreds of Iranian bloggers were also complaining about news channels that they abstained publishing images of protesters in Egypt. They also have been saying that the Iranian news channels incessantly called the Egyptian uprising an Islamic movement against corruption, secularism and against the government which was pro-Israel and the United States.

On popular community website "balatarin" Iranian bloggers discuss that for the last 48 hours, Iranian TV channels talked about the Muslim Brotherhood and called them the right party to take control of the country.