Afghanistan's Economic Prospect: From Troubling to Bleak

The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has just released its quarterly report on Afghanistan to congress. The special project's report contains a list of reports that are highly concerning about Afghanistan's future. Among the many of concerns on the country is its economic prospect.

Despite more than a decade of reconstruction and development efforts, the Afghan economy remains in fragile and worsening condition. Intractable insurgents, cutbacks in foreign military personnel, persistent emigration of people and capital, and a slowing global economy are shifting Afghanistan’s economic prospects from troubling to bleak. Source: SIGAR Quarterly Report

Giving the fact that the country has been in turmoil for decades, long enough that the infrastructure eventually extirpated, it is considerably hard to measure Afghanistan’s economy growth on a global economic index, but there are some reports that give a good estimate of how has Afghanistan’s economy been doing in post-Taliban era. Since 2002, the slowest growth that Afghanistan economy has experienced was in 2014.

According to the CIA World Factbook, the highest GDP growth was recorded 14% in 2012. Then, in 2013, it surprisingly experienced a drastic decline which was recorded 3.9%. In 2014, it dropped lower to 1.3%, and in 2015, it even went steeper to 1%, which is lowest than it has ever exited. But now there is a report that came out just yesterday indicating Afghanistan’s GDP growth may drop even lower.

Considering all these facts about Afghanistan's economy, it is safe to say that Afghanistan's economy in 2016 may not change if there is not any improvement in its current political instability and violence that is overwhelmingly increasing throughout the country. Based on SIGAR report, Afghanistan has become more dangerous today than the years before. It reports that the Taliban now have control more territory than at any time since 2001. It estimates that roughly 71.7% of the country's districts are under Afghan government control, or influence.

In the end, the negative yield curve in Afghanistan economy could only change if there would be any outside help not only to fragile economy, but as well as to its security. 

Hazara Female Models on the Catwalk in Kabul

A decade-and-a-half after the end of Taliban rule, women in Afghanistan still face pressure to dress conservatively in their Muslim-dominated society. That makes holding a fashion show with female models a risky endeavor. But some young women are making a fashion statement, defying threats and social taboos to take to the runway. (RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan). Source RFE/RL

Here is another example of bravery that is presented by Hazara women defying the threats against themselves. However, there is just one caveat to remember. We must be careful and distinguish when we are talking about women in Afghanistan. Ethnic plays an important role in women's freedom. You won't see women from other ethnic groups among them. These young females are ethnically Hazara, the most persecuted and downtrodden people on earth. If chance given to them, and they receive support, these women can be an embodiment of courage and freedom that can exemplify it for others.

A Brief Review: The Last Thousand: One School's Promise in a Nation atWar

I posted this on my Facebook page, then I realized that I must have first published it here to make it an official piece, but then I thought an official piece means that I have to do a thorough review of the book. Well, I might come back and do that soon, before my classes start, but for now, it is not a bad idea to share a glimpse of the book which contains inspirational stories of young Hazara girls at Marefat High School. Contrary to other books that so far have published on Afghanistan and have tried to give a grim outlook of the future, The Last Thousand is the opposite, it gives an optimistic picture of Afghanistan's future, while noticing the lack of insecurity and warning about the fall of the country into the hands of the Taliban. 

I just finished reading The Last Thousand: One School's Promise in a Nation at War by a renowned journalist Jeffrey E. Stern. The original version of the book will come out on January 26. I started it three days ago, and thought that my incremental reading would last for a week. I was wrong. When I started reading, it was hard for me to even take a break. It is so elegantly written, so masterly told that it feels more like leafing through the diary of a dear friend that one tries to discover the secrets, than an excursion through the current historical experience of Afghanistan that centers around the young Afghan girls who are thirsty for education.

The Last Thousand is all about hope, and happiness that Afghanistan needs for its futuer, like Najiba, a mother of four children who starts school at an old age because she wants her kids to be raised by smart parents; like Tamana who despite her loss and ordeal becomes a symbol of hope and strength in the school; like Yunos Bakhshi who brings his telescope to school to teach Marefat students about the universe, the other planets and our solar system; and like the Teacher Aziz Royesh, the main character who revolutionizes the minds of young girls, turning them into powerful contributors to social change and education.

These girls are the powerful determinants of their lives in Afghanistan’s future. The epicenter of all these changes is Marefat, and finally it tells the reader that the crust of the Afghan society must adjust itself to the nature of ever-increasing magnitude of change that is brought by young girls.

A deep and hearfelt thank you to Jeffery Stern for writing such a painstakingly beautiful book - of hope - which is full of inspirational stories!